Impact of Large Penetration of Correlated Wind Generation on Power System Reliability:Reliability Evaluation by Non-sequential MCS

Reliability Evaluation by Non-sequential MCS

The calculation of the reliability indices in nonsequential MCS can be summarized by evaluating Eq. (1):

Large Scale Renewable Power Generation-0242

where N is the number of simulated states, F is the test function for calculating the indices for each system state xi and EðFÞ is the estimate of the annual reliability indices.

The system states are obtained by combining the states of all system components. For a system with m components, a system state can be represented by the random vector x = [x1, x2, …, xk,…,xm] where xk represents the state of the kth component.

Sampling the component state is done by applying the Inverse Transformation (IT) method to the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the component operating states. Considering a component modeled by n states, this is done by generating a random number Uk uniformly distributed between [0, 1] and then identifying its state xk by (2), where Pi = P(xk B i):

Large Scale Renewable Power Generation-0243

The models usually used by nonsequential MCS assume that the states of the components are statistically independent and therefore, the probability of occurrence of each system state is given by the product of the probability of each component state. Defining P(xk) as the probability of occurrence associated with the kth component, the probability of the ith system state P(xi) is calculated by (3):

Large Scale Renewable Power Generation-0244

However, as will be discussed in the next section, this approach is incorrect when there are statistically dependent components, as is the case of multiple correlated wind generations, for example.

Related posts:

Measurements and instrumentation:Temperature.
Direct-Current Voltage Testing of Electrical Equipment:DC Voltage Testing of Insulation
Insulating Oils, Fluids, and Gases:Maintenance and Reconditioning of Insulating Oil and Fluids
Transformers:Online Monitoring of Bushings and Lightning Arrestors
Low-Voltage Switchgear and Circuit Breakers:Assessing Service Life of Low-Voltage Breakers
Testing and Commissioning of Protective Relays and Instrument Transformers:Types of Relay Tests
Power Quality, Harmonics, and Predictive Maintenance:Predictive Maintenance and PQ Measurements
Greener diesels:Brazil
Greener diesels:U.S. and Europe
The Current Situation and Perspectives on the Use of Wind Energy for Electricity Generation:The Use ...
The Current Situation and Perspectives on the Use of Geothermal Energy for Electricity Generation:It...
Resiliency Analysis of Large-Scale Renewable Enriched Power Grid:Measure of Connectivity-Degree Cent...
Probabilistic Modeling and Statistical Characteristics of Aggregate Wind Power:Geographic Diversity

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *